Now that the Prime Minister has set a retirement date, will words be kept and political stability improve in the country? WITH THE LOOMING UMNO PARTY ELECTIONS,mounting political scandals and growing economic hardship, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi’s retirement announcement on July 10 was almost an anti-climax. Contrary to expectation, he was not retiring immediately or anytime soon. Instead, he is staying on until June 2010. Many in Umno had expected him to leave before or soon after the party’s December election. Instead, Abdullah is not only staying on but is defending his party post. In politics, two years is a long time – it can be forever. Abdullah knows this and his deputy Datuk Seri Mohd Najib Abdul Razak, his anointed successor, should too. Two years is also a long time for the moribund economy and more so for the hard-pressed rakyat. And if one studies closely the Prime Minister’s statement as conveyed by the Umno-owned Utusan This, of course, assumes that the Prime Minister calculates every single word and statement he utters, which, as we have come to learn, is not always the case. Utusan Semantically, bercadang means ‘plan to’. Abdullah ‘plans to’ hand over the post of party president to Mohd Najib in June or sometime in the middle of 2010. He did not say he was handing over the post to Mohd Najib. He was only planning to. And the Muslims are regularly reminded in their prayers that ‘human beings plan and Allah delivers’. So, I will not count my chicks before they are hatched. The chirping of the fluffy little creatures could still be as tentative as the sound of distant thunder. The skies rumble but the rain does not come. And there’s nothing more foul than the smell of rotten eggs. It can be recalled that Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad had made known his plan to hand over power to his then deputy, Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, sometime in 1998. But in 1997, the regional financial crisis erupted and a year later, Anwar was sacked from Umno and the government. Dr Mahathir stayed on until the end of 2003. Minimising threats TO make sure that Mohd Najib is not a threat to him in the next two years, Abdullah announced that he and Mohd Najib would defend their posts together. This ties down Mohd Najib to him. While this may strengthen Mohd Najib’s job security, it will also harm his prospects and reputation if things do not improve in the next two years. To a lot of people, rescuing the economy is the top priority, and Abdullah’s performance record in the last four years has not been convincing. Abdullah is a shrewd politician and survivor. He knows that Mohd Najib has the potential to take him on and has the support to win. By anointing Mohd Najib and making him his running mate for the coming party election, Abdullah hopes to kill any attempt to force Mohd Najib to mount a challenge. More urgently, Abdullah needs Mohd Najib to help him win the president’s post should there be a challenge. The chances are there will be. The former vice president and Member of Parliament for Gua Musang in Kelantan, Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, has offered himself for the post. With the Prime Minister deciding to stay on until 2010, the chances of Tengku Razaleigh getting the support from the anti-Abdullah divisions should have improved. Or Mohd Najib himself may be forced by popular demand by the divisions to take on Abdullah. It would be suicidal for Mohd Najib to ignore and say no to a groundswell. He has also to consider the possibility of the senior vice president and International Trade and Industry Minister, Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, sticking to his decision to contest the deputy president’s post. If Mohd Najib stays put and Muhyiddin sticks to his guns, then a bruising and potentially damaging contest between two natural allies could ensue. In the post-March 8 polls, a sizeable segment of Umno membership is counting on the Mohd Najib- Muhyiddin partnership at the party and government levels. Abdullah and his political operators must have got wind of the grass root movement to promote the Mohd Najib-Muhyiddin partnership. This puts Mohd Najib in a sticky situation. If he chooses to stick to his loyalty rhetoric and stay in Abdullah’s embrace, he will lose the goodwill of Muhyiddin’s supporters. He may even lose the support of his own supporters. And I don’t think Abdullah minds having Muhyiddin as his deputy president and Deputy Prime Minister although the latter has been outspoken – by Umno’s current standards that is – in recent months. He was reported telling Utusan The challengers slug it out ABDULLAH is not unaware that he’s no longer popular with the majority of Umno members. They rejected him at the March 8 polls by not voting, spoiling the votes and voting for the Opposition. But Abdullah’s concern goes beyond the party and government. Having seen what happened to Dr Mahathir and his associates when they were no longer in power, Abdullah is doing all that he can to minimize the possibility of the same fate befalling him. He also knows that in recent weeks, despite the mounting public complaints and criticism, his position has strengthened somewhat, thanks to the disarray among his potential Umno opponents and the growing uncertainty in the Pakatan Rakyat camp. The mudslinging between the Parti Keadilan Rakyat de facto leader, Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, and Mohd Najib has temporarily diverted attention from him. This has led to some conspiracy theorists to outrageously claim that Abdullah and his operators are behind these sensational events. While Anwar is desperately attempting to ward off sodomy allegations by a former aide, Saiful Bukhari Azhar, Mohd Najib is mired in the continuing Altantuya Shaariibuu murder saga following two recent statutory declarations alleging his involvement and the involvement of his wife, Datin Seri Rosmah Mansor. Although both Anwar and Mohd Najib have vehemently denied involvement, the cloud of uncertainty will continue to hang over their heads as police investigations progress. Anwar has so far responded by making a police report against the Inspector-General of Police, Tan Sri Musa Hassan, and the Attorney-General for allegedly falsifying evidence in his corruption-sodomy trial some nine years ago. He has also been demanding that the alleged sodomy case be handled by the All said and done, Abdullah is not totally out of the woods. Party branches and divisions may still name challengers, including Mohd Najib, to take him on. Surely, Mohd Najib is more than aware that in politics, time is of the essence. In 1999, he was the principle candidate for the post of Deputy Prime Minister but lost out to Abdullah because Dr Mahathir thought that Abdullah was older and should be given a chance. Given such uncertainties, we may see a repeat of the 1993 leadership fight when Anwar easily outnominated the incumbent, the late Tun Abdul Ghafar Baba, despite the expressed wish of the Supreme Council that there shouldn’t be a challenge for the deputy president’s post. Seeing things as they are AMIDST this continuing uncertainty and the bleak global economic outlook, Abdullah reaffirmed his confidence that the economy will grow by at least 5% this year. Reuters reported him as saying that the economy could hit the 5% growth target ‘as the fundamentals are strong’. ‘I think 5% is achievable. We have to manage, reduce the negative impact. Next year we will see what happens, because a lot of things are happening so fast, the volatility of the world economy is very high,’ he was quoted as saying. He went on to assure that ‘political stability would soon be restored’ and vowed that he was ready to take action to stamp out political instability. Just over a week earlier, the Bank Negara Malaysia Governor, Tan Sri Zeti Akhtar Aziz, had warned that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth might fall to below 5%, and that the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) figure shooting past 6% was a result of the 41% fuel price increase on June 5. The New Straits Times on July 2 headlined: ‘ Zeti: Inflation likely to have hit 6-7pc in June’. She attributed the doubling of the monthly CPI increase to the jump in fuel prices, the withdrawal of subsidies and external factors. The 6%-7% increase could easily be the highest month-to-month CPI jump ever registered by the country in recent years. As a comparison, the 3.8% jump in May was already the worst monthly CPI increase in 22 months, according to a Bernama report quoting Zeti. This could also be the highest monthly CPI increase that was directly caused by a deliberate policy of the government, ie, to further reduce fuel subsidies and free up the pump price. So, from bragging about low inflation rates, which has always had its doubters, the government has now to acknowledge that it can no longer fiddle with the CPI basket to keep inflation rates low. Despite the assurance, the question remains – did the Abdullah administration really study and understand the implications of the massive subsidy cut and the 41% upward revision of fuel prices to the nation’s economy and the people? Whereas it is generally acknowledged that the country can no longer keep up with rising crude oil prices, the sudden subsidy withdrawal and the massive jump in the prices of fuel have been too much for the economy and consumers to absorb. E-MAIL: AKADIRJASIN@BERITAPUB.COM.MY BESIDES MALAYSIAN BUSINESS, KADIR ALSO CONTRIBUTES TO LOCAL BAHASA
No comments:
Post a Comment